Finally the Communists withdrew support. After barking for 4 years that they will pull down the UPA, they finally withdrew support on a issue they are bound to lose face, as the Nuclear deal will anyways go through. As of now, I will not write about ‘what the nuclear deal is really about’. I will save it to the day when the IAEA agreement is made public. I will concentrate on the politics of the nuclear deal i.e. how the political realignments will affect the Next Loksabha election.
The Political realignment for the Next Loksabha elections of 2009
The Communists were the biggest stumbling block to reforms of any particular form in all these 4 years of UPA rule. The compulsion of alliance made them take advantage of the government and they blocked nearly every reform. Now that they are gone, it is better for India. The Samajwadi’s are better at this point of time as they do not have much ideological differences between them and the UPA. The leftists try and relate Inflation and the nuclear deal which is a no brainer. Just because we sign the nuclear deal does not make inflation any higher or lower.
CPI(M) is running scared after the recent Panchayat elections in West Bengal. Even though it was massively rigged, Trinamool Congress of Mamta Banerjee and the Congress made impressive gains which may translate to the left losing as many as 20 Lok Sabha seats in the coming election. Trinamool is mostly supporting the Congress for the nuclear deal and may strike the “Mahajot” alliance between them and the Congress to defeat the ideologically corrupt and in-human leftists. Nandigram and Singur will haunt the left in years to come. They want to divert attention away from its failures and concentrate on UPA-BJP bashing. I don’t think it will succeed. Even in Kerala it will face anti- incumbency as it won nearly 19/20 seats there.
The left may lose as many as half of its present 59 seats in parliament in the next 2009 loksabha elections.
Mulayam is a shrewd politician. His man-Friday Amar Singh is an enigma in politics. He is not a mass politician, but mulayam needs him and his contacts for everything. The Samajwadi’s have a huge problem in their backyard. Mayawati’s elephant has plans to decimate mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. Mulayam has 39 MP’s in this lok sabha, but it has been of no use. He did not enjoy any power and lost the assembly elections also. SP was a pariah. He knows if he has to survive a truck with the Congress in UP is necessary. For the congress this is a boon. Anyways it has no hope to win more then 10 seats in UP. Mayawati is Congress’s enemy number 1 as she is responsible for the loss of congress in Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal, Karnataka by eating into the Dalit vote. The Congress needs to contain her in UP and the Samajwadi’s will come in handy. They may go in for a seat sharing agreement where the Congress may get 26 seats,SP -40 and RLD-4 seats to contest out of the total 80 seats. It remains to be seen what Mayawati will do. Will she go in for an alliance with the BJP ?May be a post-poll one, but a pre-poll alliance is doubtful.
BJP needs to play its card carefully. Mere announcement of who will contest where now only will not benefit it. It has to look into newer alliances as SP and the Trinamool joining the UPA will add nearly 40 seats to that alliance. BJP needs to get Chautala’s INLD on board. TDP will come back to the NDA after the polls. But Naidu is facing serious rebellion in Andhra and it remains to be seen if he can win enough seats to be relevant. BJP needs to concentrate also on the states it did well last time and ensure it repeats the performance. It will gain in karnataka, but if Deve Gowda’s JD(S) decides to go in for an alliance with the Congress then the BJP will be wiped out in karnataka. ( BJP- 34 %, Congress + JD(S) = 35%+ 19%= 54% in the recent assembly elections )
So finally my prediction for alliances are:-
- UPA will add mostly SP,Trinamool,RLD, TRS may be coming back because of Chiranjeevi’s entry,
- DMDK of Vijaykanth if PMK goes with NDA, Gowda’s JD(S)
- NDA will add INLD,TDP, Devender Goud’s new party in Telengana, BSP(post-poll),MDMK,AIADMK
- Leftists will go at it alone and lose badly in both Bengal and Kerala
All in all, 2009 will be incredibly exciting for a political enthusiast.
Please write in your opinion on what the alliances may be. Your feedback is welcome.
u r in a fools’paradise.congress will never return to power.
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